Chicken Meat
Global production is forecast 1 percent higher in 2024 to a record 103.3 million tons. Production gains by the
United States and Brazil as well as increases by many medium-sized producing countries will more than offset a
decline in China. Brazil surpassed China to become the world’s second largest producer in 2022 and continues to
solidify its position. Brazil’s record high forecast is supported by strong foreign demand and moderating
production costs, particularly lower feed prices. A reduction in feed costs is expected to buoy production gains
globally along with the assumption of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) recovery in impacted countries
such as Argentina, Chile, EU, Turkey, and South Africa. China production is forecast 3 percent lower to 13.9 million
tons on declines for both white and yellow broilers. White broiler production is expected to be weakened by
HPAI-related import restrictions negatively impacting genetics while yellow broiler will wane on the closure of live
poultry markets.
Global exports are forecast 3 percent higher in 2024 to a record 14.0 million tons following relatively stagnant
growth trade in 2023. Despite a slowing global economy which stymies robust consumption growth, chicken
demand will remain firm as consumers in many countries seek relatively lower-cost animal protein. The world’s
leading exporter, Brazil, will capture much of the gain due to its price competitiveness and extensive market
access compared to most other major exporters. Brazil’s HPAI outbreaks have been limited to wild and backyard
cases which are generally not subject to restrictions by trading partners. Turkey, the United States, Thailand, and
the United Kingdom will also benefit from firm global demand while Chile’s trade recovers from the lifting of
HPAI-related restrictions. EU exports are forecast stagnant due to ongoing HPAI-related trade restrictions.
U.S. production and exports: U.S. production is expected to rise 1 percent to a record 21.4 million tons in 2024
on a modest decline in feed prices. Increased production will support a modest boost in exports which are
forecast 1 percent higher to nearly 3.4 million tons, largely due to greater shipments to key markets Mexico and
Canada.
